Sunday, May 19, 2013

My Predictions

I've been asked by people on both sides of the aisle how I think things will shake out once the polls close and the dust settles on Tuesday night.

Well, here we go.

The Republican Primary for County Executive
Scott Ott 56%
Dean Browning 44%

This is closer than I thought it would have been just a month or so ago. My prediction is based on a couple things.
1.) At the CEPTA Candidates night last Tuesday, Scott Ott had a bit of an edge that I've never seen on him before. Browning has run a tenacious if deceptive campaign and I can see how that would get to someone but Scott is usually a Reaganesque happy warrior regardless. He was just a bit "meaner" than I'm used to seeing him. If he were ahead by 30 points, that wouldn't be the case.

2.) Dean Browning outraised Ott 2-1. That won't be enough to win because honestly, the GOP base doesn't like Browning. Nothing can change that. The GOP base votes for ideology above all else. It'll be closer than it ought to be, but Scott will prevail.

Lehigh County Commissioner District 2
Percy Dougherty 53%
Scott Aquila 47%

I like both men in this race. If Emmaus still was in District 2, Percy Dougherty would have my vote. I've known him and he has, to an extent, mentored me since I was 16 years old. He is not always (ok, ever) as Conservative as I would like, but he's never lied to me about who he is or what he stands for.

Percy has run a very hard race. He knows how to win in this district and Upper Macungie Township and South Whitehall township are not as Conservative with their GOP base as most areas. I don't think Lower Mac Township will do much worse than break even.

The district will be well served no matter who wins.

Lehigh County Commissioner District 5
Mike Schware
Norma Cusick
Kevin Ryan
Nate Brown

That will be the order and I don't care to guess at percentages between them. If I'm wrong, it will be 3rd and 4th place that flip. It is much to my surprise that Norma Cusick and not Nate Brown have emerged as the primary moderate contenders against Mr. Schware. I shouldn't have been surprised. Norma has been in politics for decades. Mr. Brown is, by comparison, a rank amateur. I suspect he's trying to increase his name ID for once State Rep. Justin Simmons moves up or term limits himself. I might have a thing or two to say about that when the time comes.

I admire Norma for her courage and tenacity as a candidate. She won't win, but she wont embarrass herself in what I think will be her last campaign.

East Penn School Board Republican
Alan Earnshaw
Garrett Rhoads
Wanda Mercado-Arroyo
Chris Donatelli
Ziad W. Munson
Rebecca Heid
Michael Moxley

East Penn School Board Democrat
Rebecca Heid
Alan Earnshaw
Ziad W. Munson
Wanda Mercado-Arroyo
Michael Moxley
Garrett Rhoads
Chris Donatelli

I'll let those predictions stand without further comment. We'll see if I'm right.

Lower Macungie Township Commissioner
Ryan Conrad
Roger Reis
Ron Eichenberg
Ron Beitler
Brian Higgins

The race between Beitler and Eichenberg will be very close and it should be. Both candidates have their flaws. Personally I LIKE Beitler better but if I had a vote, it would go to the incumbent.
If Beitler had not run with Higgins...well, we'll never know.

Misc:
I have no idea what will happen in Upper Milford township. I haven't followed that primary very closely and I should have. That's where my grandparents live and they often ask for my suggestions.

Mayor Iobst will crush John Belin in the Democrat primary in Emmaus.

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